Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China‘s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen（1）

Kumena icyuho-cy-abate mu Bushinwa inzira yo kutabogama kwa karubone hamwe na hydrogène isukuye

Ibihugu nk’Ubushinwa bifite imbogamizi mu nzira zabyo zo kutabogama kwa karubone: kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya mu nganda zikomeye no gutwara abantu biremereye.Hariho ubushakashatsi bwimbitse bwuruhare rushoboka rwa hydrogène isukuye muriyi mirenge 'bigoye-abate' (HTA).Hano dukora isesengura ryibanze rito-igiciro cyo kwerekana icyitegererezo.Ibisubizo byerekana ko, icya mbere, hydrogène isukuye ishobora kuba itwara ingufu n’ibiryo bishobora kugabanya cyane imyuka ihumanya ikirere.Irashobora kandi gukongeza kugeza 50% by'amakamyo aremereye y'Ubushinwa hamwe na bisi zitwara abagenzi mu 2060 hamwe n’imigabane minini yo kohereza.Icya kabiri, ibintu byiza bya hydrogène isukuye igera kuri 65.7 Mt yumusaruro muri 2060 irashobora kwirinda miliyari 1.72 zamadorali y’amadorari y’ishoramari ugereranije na hydrogène.Ubu bushakashatsi butanga ibimenyetso byerekana agaciro ka hydrogène isukuye mu mirenge ya HTA ku Bushinwa ndetse n’ibihugu bihura n’ibibazo bisa mu kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere kugira ngo bigere ku ntego za zeru.

Kurwanya kutabogama kwa karubone ni ubutumwa bwihutirwa ku isi, ariko nta nzira 'imwe-imwe-ihuza-ibihugu' ibihugu bikomeye byohereza ibyuka kugira ngo bigere kuri iyi ntego1,2.Ibihugu byinshi byateye imbere nka Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika ndetse n’ibihugu by’Uburayi, bikurikiza ingamba zo gutanga ibihembo bya decar byibanda cyane cyane ku mato manini y’imodoka yoroheje (LDV), amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi, inganda n’amazu y’ubucuruzi n’imiturire, imirenge ine yose hamwe. ubwinshi bwibyuka byangiza imyuka ya karubone3,4.Ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere, nk'Ubushinwa, bitandukanye, bifite imiterere itandukanye ndetse n'inzego z'ingufu, bisaba ko hajyaho ibintu bitandukanye byashyizwe imbere mu rwego rw'imirenge gusa, ahubwo no mu rwego rwo gushyira mu bikorwa ingamba zikoreshwa mu ikoranabuhanga rya zero-karubone.

Itandukaniro ryibanze ryerekana imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu Bushinwa ugereranije n’ubukungu bw’iburengerazuba ni imigabane minini y’ibyuka byoherezwa mu nganda zikomeye n’ibice bito cyane bya LDV no gukoresha ingufu mu nyubako (Ishusho 1).Ubushinwa buza ku mwanya wa mbere ku isi, kugeza ubu, mu bijyanye no gukora sima, ibyuma n'ibyuma, imiti ndetse no kubaka ibikoresho, bikoresha amakara menshi mu bushyuhe bw’inganda no gukora kokiya.Inganda zikomeye zitanga 31% by’ubushinwa bwangiza ikirere muri iki gihe, umugabane uri hejuru ya 8% ugereranyije n’ikigereranyo cy’isi (23%), 17% ugereranyije n’Amerika (14%) na 13% ugereranyije n’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi (18%) (ref.5).

Ubushinwa bwiyemeje kuzamura imyuka ihumanya ikirere mbere ya 2030 no kugera ku kutabogama kwa karubone mbere ya 2060. Iyi mihigo y’ikirere yashimiwe cyane ariko inatera kwibaza ku bijyanye n’imikorere yabo6, igice kubera uruhare runini rw’ibigoye (HTA) inzira mu bukungu bw'Ubushinwa.Izi nzira zirimo gukoresha ingufu mu nganda ziremereye no gutwara ibintu biremereye bizagorana amashanyarazi (bityo bigahita byinjira mu mbaraga zishobora kuvugururwa) hamwe ninganda zikora inganda zishingiye ku bicanwa biva mu bimera by’imiti.Habayeho ubushakashatsi buke vuba aha1– 3 gukora iperereza ku nzira ya bonar iganisha ku kutabogama kwa karubone muri gahunda y’ingufu z’Ubushinwa muri rusange ariko hamwe n’isesengura rito ry’imirenge ya HTA.Ku rwego mpuzamahanga, ibisubizo byoroheje byo kugabanya imirenge ya HTA byatangiye gukurura abantu mumyaka yashize7–14.Decarbonisation yimirenge ya HTA iragoye kuko biragoye amashanyarazi yose kandi / cyangwa ikiguzi neza 7,8.Åhman yashimangiye ko gushingira ku nzira ari cyo kibazo cy’ibanze ku mirenge ya HTA kandi ko hakenewe icyerekezo n’igenamigambi rirambye ry’ikoranabuhanga rigezweho kugira ngo 'hafungurwe' imirenge ya HTA, cyane cyane inganda zikomeye, biturutse ku guterwa n’ibinyabuzima9.Ubushakashatsi bwakoze ubushakashatsi ku bikoresho bishya no kugabanya ibisubizo bijyanye no gufata karubone, gukoresha no / cyangwa kubika (CCUS) hamwe n’ikoranabuhanga ribi ryangiza ikirere (NET) 10.11.y’ubushakashatsi nibura bumwe bwemeza ko bugomba no gutekerezwa muri gahunda ndende11.Muri raporo ya gatandatu y’isuzumabumenyi iherutse gusohoka y’akanama gashinzwe guverinoma ku bijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe, ikoreshwa rya hydrogène 'y’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere' ryemejwe ko ari kimwe mu bisubizo by’ibanze bigamije kugabanya ingufu z’amasegonda menshi kugira ngo habeho imyuka ihumanya ikirere 12.

Ubuvanganzo buriho kuri hydrogène isukuye bwibanze ahanini kumahitamo yubuhanga bwo gukora hamwe nisesengura ryibiciro bitangwa15.. urwego rwo gutwara abantu mubihugu byateye imbere-ibinyabiziga bitanga ingufu za hydrogène byumwihariko 16.17.Imbaraga zo kwangiza inganda zikomeye zaragabanutse ugereranije n’icyambu cyohereza umuhanda, byerekana ibitekerezo bisanzwe ko inganda zikomeye zizabikora
guma cyane cyane kugabanuka kugeza igihe tekinoloji nshya ya innova igaragaye.Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na hydrogène isukuye (cyane cyane icyatsi) bwerekanye ko bukuze mu ikoranabuhanga no kugabanuka kw'ibiciro17, ariko hakenewe ubundi bushakashatsi bwibanda ku bunini bw’amasoko ashobora kuba akenewe n’ikoranabuhanga mu nganda kugira ngo habeho iterambere ry’iterambere rya hydrogène isukuye16.Gusobanukirwa nubushobozi bwa hydrogène isukuye kugirango iteze imbere kutabogama kwisi ya karubone bizarangwa kubogama niba isesengura rigarukira gusa kubiciro byumusaruro waryo, imikoreshereze yimirenge itoneshwa gusa no kuyikoresha mubukungu bwateye imbere. Ubuvanganzo buriho kuri hydrogène isukuye bwibanze ahanini kumahitamo yubuhanga bwo gukora hamwe nisesengura ryibiciro byo kuruhande15.. urwego rwo gutwara abantu mubihugu byateye imbere-ibinyabiziga bitanga ingufu za hydrogène byumwihariko 16.17.Ibitutu bya decarbonisation yinganda ziremereye byagabanutse ugereranije n’ibyambu byambukiranya umuhanda, bikagaragaza ko abantu benshi bavuga ko inganda zikomeye zizakomeza kugorana cyane kugeza igihe hazashyirwaho uburyo bushya bw’ikoranabuhanga.Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na hydrogène isukuye (cyane cyane icyatsi) bwerekanye ko bukuze mu ikoranabuhanga no kugabanuka kw'ibiciro17, ariko hakenewe ubundi bushakashatsi bwibanda ku bunini bw’amasoko ashobora kuba akenewe n’ikoranabuhanga mu nganda kugira ngo habeho iterambere ry’iterambere rya hydrogène isukuye16.Gusobanukirwa nubushobozi bwa hydrogène isukuye kugirango iteze imbere kutabogama kwa karubone ku isi bizarangwa no kubogama niba isesengura rigarukira gusa ku kiguzi cy’ibicuruzwa byaryo, imikoreshereze y’imirenge itoneshwa gusa no kuyikoresha mu bihugu byateye imbere.

Gusuzuma amahirwe ya hydrogène isukuye biterwa no kongera gusuzuma ibyifuzo byayo nkibindi bikoresho bya peteroli n’ibikomoka ku miti muri gahunda zose z’ingufu n’ubukungu, harimo no gutekereza ku bihe bitandukanye by’igihugu.Nta bushakashatsi bunoze bwakozwe kugeza ubu ku ruhare rwa hydrogène isukuye mu Bushinwa bwa net-zero.Kuzuza iki cyuho cy’ubushakashatsi bizafasha gushushanya neza inzira yo kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu Bushinwa, itume hasuzumwa niba bishoboka ko imihigo yayo ya 2030 na 2060 ishoboka kandi ikanatanga ubuyobozi ku bindi bihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere bifite inganda nini n’inganda zikomeye.

Igishushanyo 1 |Ibyuka byangiza imyuka mubihugu byingenzi nuburyo bwo gusesengura hydrogène muri sisitemu yingufu.a, Ubushinwa bwangiza imyuka ya karubone muri 2019 ugereranije na Amerika, Uburayi, Ubuyapani n'Ubuhinde, hakoreshejwe lisansi.Muri 2019, gutwika amakara byafashe igice kinini cy’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere mu Bushinwa (79,62%) no mu Buhinde (70.52%), kandi gutwika peteroli byagize uruhare runini mu kohereza imyuka ya karuboni muri Amerika (41,98%) no mu Burayi (41.27%).b, Ubushinwa bwangiza imyuka ya karubone muri 2019 ugereranije n’Amerika, Uburayi, Ubuyapani n'Ubuhinde, ukurikije umurenge.Ibyuka bihumanya byerekanwa ibumoso nu kigereranyo iburyo muri a na b.Umubare w’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere biva mu nganda mu Bushinwa (28,10%) no mu Buhinde (24,75%) byari hejuru cyane ugereranije n’Amerika (9.26%) n’Uburayi (13.91%) muri 2019. c, Inzira ya tekiniki hamwe n’ikoranabuhanga rya hydrogène ikoreshwa muri imirenge ya HTA.SMR, kuvugurura metani;PEM electrolysis, polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis;Inzira ya PEC, inzira y'amashanyarazi.

Ubu bushakashatsi burashaka gusubiza ibibazo bitatu byingenzi.Ubwa mbere, ni izihe mbogamizi zingenzi zibangamira decarbonisation yimirenge ya HTA mubihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajyambere nk'Ubushinwa, bitandukanye n'ibihugu byateye imbere?Ese tekinoroji igabanya ubukana mu mirenge ya HTA (cyane cyane inganda ziremereye) ikora neza bihagije kugirango ubushinwa butagira aho bubogamiye muri 2060?Icya kabiri, ni izihe nshingano ziteganijwe kuri hydrogène isukuye nk'itwara ry'ingufu ndetse n'amatungo mu mirenge ya HTA, cyane cyane mu Bushinwa ndetse no mu bindi bihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere byatangiye kubona umusaruro uteganya gukoreshwa?Hanyuma, hashingiwe ku gutezimbere imbaraga zubushinwa bwose sys

tem, gukoresha ikoreshwa rya hydrogène isukuye mumirenge ya HTA byakoreshwa neza ugereranije nubundi buryo?

Hano twubaka icyitegererezo cya sisitemu y’ingufu ihuriweho harimo itangwa n’ibisabwa mu nzego zose kugira ngo dusesengure ingaruka zishobora guterwa n’uruhare rwa hydrogène isukuye mu bukungu bw’Ubushinwa, twibanda ku mirenge ya HTA idakorerwa ubushakashatsi (Ishusho 1c).

Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-03-2023