Ibyavuye mu isesengura byerekana ko kwishingikiriza ku kuzamura ingufu z’ingufu zifatanije na CCUS na NET byonyine bidashoboka ko ari inzira ihendutse yo kwangiza imyuka mibi y’imirenge ya HTA mu Bushinwa, cyane cyane inganda zikomeye.By'umwihariko, gukoresha hydrogène isukuye mu mirenge ya HTA birashobora gufasha Ubushinwa kugera ku giciro cyo kutabogama kwa karubone ugereranije na sisitemu idafite hydrogène isukuye kandi ikoreshwa.Ibisubizo bitanga ubuyobozi bukomeye ku nzira ya HTA ya decarbonisation y'Ubushinwa hamwe n’ingirakamaro ku bindi bihugu bifite ibibazo nk'ibyo.
Decarbonizing inganda za HTA hamwe na hydrogen isukuye
Dukora uburyo bunoze bwo kugabanya uburyo bwo kugabanya inzira zo kugabanya kutabogama kwa karubone mu Bushinwa mu 2060. Ibintu bine byerekana icyitegererezo bisobanurwa mu mbonerahamwe ya 1: ubucuruzi nk'uko bisanzwe (BAU), Umusanzu w’igihugu cy’Ubushinwa mu masezerano y'i Paris (NDC), net- imyuka ya zeru hamwe na hydrogène ikoreshwa (ZERO-NH) hamwe na net-zeru hamwe na hydrogen isukuye (ZERO-H).Imirenge ya HTA muri ubu bushakashatsi ikubiyemo umusaruro w’inganda za sima, ibyuma n’ibyuma n’imiti yingenzi (harimo ammonia, soda na caustic soda) hamwe n’ubwikorezi bukomeye, harimo gutwara amakamyo no kohereza mu gihugu.Ibisobanuro byuzuye bitangwa mubice byuburyo hamwe ninyandiko zinyongera 1-5.Ku bijyanye n’icyuma n’ibyuma, igice kinini cy’umusaruro uriho mu Bushinwa (89,6%) ni uburyo bw’ibanze bw’itanura rya ogisijeni-iturika, ikibazo gikomeye cyo kwangiza cyane ibi
inganda.Itanura ry'amashanyarazi arc rigizwe na 10.4% gusa y’umusaruro wose mu Bushinwa muri 2019, ibyo bikaba biri munsi ya 17.5% ugereranije n’umugabane w’isi ku isi na 59.3% ugereranije n’Amerika 18.Twasesenguye tekinoroji 60 y’ibyuma bigabanya ibyuka byoherezwa mu cyitegererezo maze tubishyira mu byiciro bitandatu (Ishusho 2a): kunoza imikorere y’ibikoresho, imikorere y’ikoranabuhanga rigezweho, amashanyarazi, CCUS, hydrogène y’icyatsi na hydrogène yubururu (Imbonerahamwe 1).Ugereranije ibiciro bya sisitemu yo gukoresha neza ZERO-H hamwe na NDC na ZERO-NH byerekana ko gushyiramo amahitamo meza ya hydrogène byatanga umusaruro ugabanuka wa karubone bitewe no gutangiza hydrogène igabanya ibyuma (hydrogen-DRI).Menya ko hydrogène idashobora gukora nkisoko yingufu gusa mugukora ibyuma ahubwo ikora nkibikoresho bigabanya ibyuka bya karubone ku buryo bwiyongera muburyo bwa Blast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) na 100% mumuhanda wa hydrogen-DRI.Muri ZERO-H, umugabane wa BF-BOF wagabanuka ukagera kuri 34% mu 2060, hamwe n’itanura ry’amashanyarazi 45% na hydrogen-DRI 21%, naho hydrogène isukuye yatanga 29% by’ingufu za nyuma zikenewe muri urwo rwego.Hamwe nigiciro cya gride kumashanyarazi yizuba numuyaga biteganijwekugabanuka kugera kuri US $ 38-40MWh - 1 muri 205019, igiciro cya hydrogène y'icyatsi
bizagabanuka kandi, inzira 100% hydrogen-DRI irashobora kugira uruhare runini kuruta kumenyekana mbere.Ku bijyanye n’umusaruro wa sima, icyitegererezo gikubiyemo tekinoroji 47 yingenzi yo kugabanya ibicuruzwa byakozwe mu byiciro bitandatu (Imbonerahamwe yinyongera ya 2 na 3): gukoresha ingufu, ibicanwa biva mu bindi, kugabanya igipimo cya climer-na sima, CCUS, hydrogène yicyatsi na hydrogen yubururu ( Igishushanyo 2b).Ibisubizo byerekana ko tekinoroji y’ingufu zishobora kugabanya 8-10% gusa y’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere cya CO2 mu rwego rwa sima, kandi imyanda-y’ubushyuhe hamwe n’ikoranabuhanga rya oxy-lisansi bizagira ingaruka nke zo kugabanya (4-8%).Tekinoroji yo kugabanya igipimo cya clinker-kuri-sima irashobora gutanga umusaruro muke ugereranije na karubone (50-70%), cyane cyane harimo ibikoresho fatizo bya karuboni kugirango bikorwe na clinker ukoresheje icyuma gifata itanura, nubwo abanenga bibaza niba sima yavuyemo izagumana imico yingenzi.Ariko ibisubizo biriho byerekana ko gukoresha hydrogène hamwe na CCUS bishobora gufasha umurenge wa sima kugera kuri zeru hafi ya zeru muri 2060.
Mu bihe bya ZERO-H, tekinoroji 20 ishingiye kuri hydrogène (muri tekinoroji ya 47 yo kugabanya) igira uruhare mu gukora sima.Turabona ko impuzandengo yo kugabanya karubone ya tekinoroji ya hydrogène iri munsi yuburyo busanzwe bwa CCUS hamwe nuburyo bwo guhinduranya lisansi (Ishusho 2b).Byongeye kandi, hydrogène yicyatsi iteganijwe kuba ihendutse kuruta hydrogene yubururu nyuma ya 2030 nkuko byaganiriweho ku buryo burambuye hepfo, hafi US $ 0.7 - US $ 1.6 kg - 1 H2 (reba 20), bigatuma igabanuka rya CO2 mu gutanga ubushyuhe bw’inganda mu gukora sima. .Ibisubizo biriho byerekana ko bishobora kugabanya 89-95% bya CO2 bivuye mu gushyushya inganda mu Bushinwa (Ishusho 2b, ikoranabuhanga
28-47), ibyo bikaba bihuye n’ikigereranyo cya Hydrogen kigereranya 84-92% (reba 21).Imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya CO2 igomba kugabanuka na CCUS muri ZERO-H na ZERO-NH.Twigana kandi gukoresha hydrogène nk'ibiryo mu gukora ammonia, metani, methanol n'indi miti ivugwa mubisobanuro by'icyitegererezo.Mu bihe bya ZERO-H, umusaruro wa amoniya ushingiye kuri gaze hamwe nubushyuhe bwa hydrogène uzunguka 20% byumusaruro wose muri 2060 (Ishusho 3 nimbonerahamwe 4).Icyitegererezo gikubiyemo ubwoko bune bwikoranabuhanga rya methanol: amakara kuri methanol (CTM), gaze ya kokiya kuri methanol (CGTM), gaze gasanzwe kuri methanol (NTM) na CGTM / NTM hamwe nubushyuhe bwa hydrogen.Mubihe bya ZERO-H, CGTM / NTM hamwe nubushyuhe bwa hydrogène irashobora kugera ku musaruro wa 21% muri 2060 (Ishusho 3).Imiti nayo ishobora gutwara ingufu za hydrogen.Dushingiye ku isesengura ryakozwe, hydrogène irashobora kuba igizwe na 17% y’ingufu za nyuma zikoreshwa mu gutanga ubushyuhe mu nganda z’imiti mu 2060. Hamwe na bioenergy (18%) n’amashanyarazi (32%), hydrogen ifite uruhare runini muri 
decarbonisation y’inganda z’imiti ya HTA mu Bushinwa (Ishusho 4a).
Igishushanyo 2 |Kugabanya Carbone ubushobozi hamwe nigiciro cyo kugabanya tekinoroji yingenzi yo kugabanya.a, Ibyiciro bitandatu bya 60 byingenzi byo gukora ibyuma bigabanya ibyuka byangiza.b, Ibyiciro bitandatu bya 47 byingenzi bya sima yo kugabanya ibyuka byangiza.Ikoranabuhanga ryashyizwe ku mubare, hamwe nibisobanuro bihuye bikubiye mu mbonerahamwe ya 1 ya a na Imbonerahamwe ya 2 kuri b.Urwego rwo kwitegura tekinoloji (TRLs) ya buri tekinoroji irangwa: TRL3, igitekerezo;TRL4, prototype nto;TRL5, prototype nini;TRL6, prototype yuzuye kurwego;TRL7, kwerekana mbere yubucuruzi;TRL8, imyigaragambyo;TRL10, kurera hakiri kare;TRL11, ikuze.
Kwangiza uburyo bwo gutwara abantu HTA hamwe na hydrogène isukuye Hashingiwe ku bisubizo by'icyitegererezo, hydrogène nayo ifite amahirwe menshi yo kwangiza imyuka yo gutwara abantu mu Bushinwa, nubwo bizatwara igihe.Usibye LDVs, ubundi buryo bwo gutwara bwasesenguwe murugero harimo bisi zitwara abagenzi, amakamyo (urumuri / ruto / ruto / ruremereye), ubwikorezi bwo mu gihugu na gari ya moshi, bikubiyemo ubwikorezi bwinshi mu Bushinwa.Kuri LDVs, ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi birasa nkigiciro cyo guhangana mugihe kizaza.Muri ZERO-H, selile ya hydrogène (HFC) yinjira mu isoko rya LDV izagera kuri 5% gusa muri 2060 (Ishusho 3).Kuri bisi zitwara abagenzi, ariko, bisi za HFC zizaba zipiganwa cyane kuruta ubundi buryo bwo gukoresha amashanyarazi mumwaka wa 2045 kandi bugizwe na 61% byamato yose muri 2060 muri ZERO-H, hamwe n’amashanyarazi asigaye (Ishusho 3).Naho amakamyo, ibisubizo biratandukana nigipimo cyumutwaro.Gusunika amashanyarazi bizatwara kimwe cya kabiri cyikamyo itwara amakamyo yoroheje muri 2035 muri ZERO-NH.Ariko muri ZERO-H, amakamyo yoroheje ya HFC azaba arushanwe kurusha amakamyo yoroheje y’amashanyarazi mu 2035 kandi azaba agizwe na 53% ku isoko mu 2060. Ku bijyanye n’amakamyo aremereye, amakamyo aremereye ya HFC yagera kuri 66% ya isoko muri 2060 muburyo bwa ZERO-H.Diesel / bio-mazutu / CNG (gaze gasanzwe isanzwe) HDVs (ibinyabiziga biremereye) izava ku isoko nyuma ya 2050 muri ZERO-NH na ZERO-H (Ishusho 3).Imodoka ya HFC ifite inyungu zinyuranye kuruta ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi mugukora neza mubihe bikonje, byingenzi mumajyaruguru nuburengerazuba bwUbushinwa.Kurenga ubwikorezi bwo mumuhanda, icyitegererezo cyerekana ikoreshwa rya tekinoroji ya hydrogen mugutwara ibintu muri ZERO-H.Ubushinwa bwohereza ibicuruzwa mu gihugu ni ingufu nyinshi kandi ni ikibazo gikomeye cya decarbonisation.Sukura hydrogen, cyane cyane nka a
ibiryo bya ammonia, bitanga uburyo bwo kohereza decarbonisation.Igisubizo gihenze cyane mubihe bya ZERO-H bituma 65% byinjira mumavuta ya amoni na 12% byubwato bwa hydrogène muri 2060 (Ishusho 3).Muri iki gihe, hydrogène izagereranya impuzandengo ya 56% yingufu zanyuma zikoreshwa mumirenge yose itwara abantu mumwaka wa 2060. Twerekanye kandi imikoreshereze ya hydrogène mubushuhe bwo guturamo (Icyitonderwa cya 6), ariko kuyikoresha ni ntangarugero kandi iyi mpapuro yibanze. gukoresha hydrogène mu nganda za HTA no gutwara ibintu biremereye.Ikiguzi cyo kuzigama kutabogama kwa karubone ukoresheje hydrogène isukuye Ubushinwa butagira aho bubogamiye mu Bushinwa buzarangwa no kongera ingufu z’ingufu, hamwe no gukuraho amakara mu gukoresha ingufu zayo za mbere (Ishusho 4).Ibicanwa bitari imyanda bigizwe na 88% byingufu zambere zivanze muri 2050 na 93% muri 2060 munsi ya ZERO-H.Wind hamwe nizuba bizatanga kimwe cya kabiri cyingufu zambere zikoreshwa muri 2060. Ugereranije, murwego rwigihugu, hydrogène isukuye yingufu zose zanyuma ikoreshwa (TFEC) rishobora kugera kuri 13% muri 2060. Urebye uburinganire bw’akarere bw’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro mu nganda zikomeye ku karere (Imbonerahamwe yinyongera 7), hari intara icumi zifite hydrogène ya hydrogène ya TFEC irenze igipimo cy’igihugu, harimo Mongoliya Imbere, Fujian, Shandong na Guangdong, itwarwa nizuba ryinshi hamwe nubutaka hamwe nubutunzi bwumuyaga wo hanze hamwe na / cyangwa inganda nyinshi zikenera hydrogene.Mu bihe bya ZERO-NH, igiteranyo cy’ishoramari cyo kugera ku kutabogama kwa karubone kugeza mu 2060 cyaba miliyari 20.63 z'amadolari, ni ukuvuga 1.58% by’umusaruro rusange w’imbere mu gihugu (GDP) muri 2020–2060.Impuzandengo y'inyongera ku mwaka ku mwaka yaba hafi miliyari 516 z'amadolari ya Amerika ku mwaka.Iki gisubizo gihuye n’Ubushinwa muri gahunda yo kugabanya miriyoni 15 z’amadolari y’Amerika kugeza mu 2050, impuzandengo y’ishoramari rishya rya buri mwaka ingana na miliyari 500 z'amadolari ya Amerika (reba 22).Icyakora, kwinjiza hydrogène isukuye muri sisitemu y’ingufu z’Ubushinwa hamwe n’ibiribwa by’inganda mu bihe bya ZERO-H bituma igabanuka ry’imari ingana na tiriyari 18.91 z'amadolari ya Amerika mu 2060 ndetse n’umwakaishoramari ryagabanuka kugeza munsi ya 1% ya GDP muri 2060 (Ishusho.4).Kubireba imirenge ya HTA, ikiguzi cyishoramari cyumwaka muribyoimirenge yaba hafi miliyari 392 US $ ku mwaka muri ZERO-NHscenario, ijyanye na projection ya IngufuKomisiyo y'inzibacyuho (miliyari 400 US $) (reba 23).Ariko, niba bisukuye
hydrogène yinjijwe muri sisitemu yingufu n’ibigega by’imiti, ibintu bya ZERO-H byerekana ko igiciro cy’ishoramari ngarukamwaka mu mirenge ya HTA gishobora kugabanuka kugera kuri miliyari 359 z'amadolari ya Amerika, cyane cyane mu kugabanya gushingira kuri CCUS cyangwa NET zihenze.Ibisubizo byacu byerekana ko ikoreshwa rya hydrogène isukuye rishobora kuzigama amadolari ya Amerika miliyoni 1.72 y’amadolari y’ishoramari kandi rikirinda igihombo cya 0.13% muri rusange muri rusange (2020–2060) ugereranije n'inzira idafite hydrogene igera kuri 2060.
Igishushanyo 3 |Ikoranabuhanga ryinjira mubice bisanzwe bya HTA.Ibisubizo munsi ya BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH na ZERO-H (2020–2060).Muri buri mwaka utazibagirana, ikoranabuhanga ryihariye ryinjira mumirenge itandukanye ryerekanwa nu tubari twamabara, aho buri kabari ni ijanisha ryo kwinjira kugeza 100% (kuri lattike yuzuye igicucu).Tekinoroji irashyirwa muburyo butandukanye (yerekanwe mumigani).CNG, gaze gasanzwe;LPG, gaze ya peteroli;LNG, gaze gasanzwe;w / wo, hamwe cyangwa hanze;EAF, itanura rya arc;NSP, uburyo bushya bwo guhagarika preheater yumye;WHR, imyanda igarura.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-13-2023
